一句话：特邀报告指出不确定性常被误当作风险，自适应方法在高不确定性产品开发中比预测式管理更有效、更可预测。
该特邀报告讨论产品开发中固有的不确定性，并指出人们常把不确定性与风险混为一谈——后者指可事先识别的未知因素。传统预测式项目管理方法建立在风险管理之上，报告解释了为何在不确定性较高的领域这类方法往往效果不佳，而自适应方法因能更好地应对不确定性而显得更有效，并给出自适应方法带来更高可预测性的实例。然而许多管理者仍然相信预测式方法能带来更高的可预测性。作者结合自身经验与初步研究，提出若干假设以解释这种偏好，并强调这些假设仍需进一步研究加以验证。
There is intrinsic uncertainty in product development. Uncertainty is often confused with risk, where unknowns can be identified in advance. Traditional predictive project management methods are based on risk management and it will be explained why these methods often are less effective in domains with higher uncertainty. Adaptive methods seem to be more effective, as they better deal with that uncertainty. Examples will be given where adaptive methods have led to higher predictability. But many managers still often believe predictive methods lead to higher predictability. We will formulate some hypotheses on why managers still prefer predictive methods, based on own experience and initial research. Further research is required to validate these hypotheses.
DOI 原文 ·
@inproceedings{paperbot6299,
title = {Managers hate uncertainty: good and bad experiences with adaptive project management (invited talk)},
author = {Han Schaminée},
booktitle = {FSE},
year = {2021},
doi = {10.1145/3468264.3478692}
}