一句话：提出以自维持、自治理社区为视角，并结合项目内部社会技术结构动态来预测 OSS 项目（Apache 孵化器项目）可持续性的思路。
开源软件开发虽然流行，但最终有超过 80% 的项目失败。若能识别与 OSS 成功相关的因素，就有可能在项目走向衰退时设计干预措施。已有研究从多个角度考察 OSS 成功，近期工作通过对大量多样化项目做实证研究，采用可持续性的代理指标：既有与生产力相关的内部指标，也有与社区受欢迎程度相关的外部指标。研究还表明，项目内部的社会技术结构，尤其是其动态变化，同样十分重要。本文由此提出评估软件成功的另一个角度——把项目视为自维持与自治理的社区，并针对 Apache 孵化器项目开展可持续性预测。
Although OSS development is very popular, ultimately more than 80% of OSS projects fail. Identifying the factors associated with OSS success can help in devising interventions when a project takes a downturn. OSS success has been studied from a variety of angles, more recently in empirical studies of large numbers of diverse projects, using proxies for sustainability, e.g., internal metrics related to productivity and external ones, related to community popularity. The internal socio-technical structure of projects has also been shown important, especially their dynamics. This points to another angle on evaluating software success, from the perspective of self-sustaining and self-governing communities.