一句话：通过 XGBoost 与 LIME 分析 29 万余 GitHub 项目，揭示早期参与特征对长期项目可持续性的影响。
开源项目难以持续，但已有研究多关注成熟项目，忽略项目 infancy 阶段可持续性的决定因素。本文结合 Blumberg 绩效模型与机器学习，基于 290,255 个 GitHub 项目前三个月的早期参与数据训练 XGBoost 模型，并用 LIME 解释预测。定量结果表明：早期参与者若有 OSS 项目孵化经验、贡献集中且持续，会正向促进项目未来持续活跃；非代码贡献者和详细贡献文档也有帮助。相比个人项目，组织项目更需要由经验丰富的核心开发者和活跃的边缘开发者构成社区。该研究为可持续开源项目的孵化和识别提供可解释预测与指导。
Although the open source model bears many advantages in software development, open source projects are always hard to sustain. Previous research on open source sustainability mainly focuses on projects that have already reached a certain level of maturity (e.g., with communities, releases, and downstream projects). However, limited attention is paid to the development of (sustainable) open source projects in their infancy, and we believe an understanding of early sustainability determinants is crucial for project initiators, incubators, newcomers, and users. In this paper, we aim to explore the relationship between early participation factors and long-term project sustainability. We leverage a novel methodology combining the Blumberg model of performance and machine learning to predict the sustainability of 290,255 GitHub projects. Specificially, we train an XGBoost model based on early participation (first three months of activity) in 290,255 GitHub projects and we interpret the model using LIME. We quantitatively show that early participants have a positive effect on project's future sustained activity if they have prior experience in OSS project incubation and demonstrate concentrated focus and steady commitment. Participation from non-code contributors and detailed contribution documentation also promote project's sustained activity. Compared with individual projects, building a community that consists of more experienced core developers and more active peripheral developers is important for organizational projects. This study provides unique insights into the incubation and recognition of sustainable open source projects, and our interpretable prediction approach can also offer guidance to open source project initiators and newcomers.
DOI 原文 · arXiv · PDF（开放获取） · DBLP
@inproceedings{abs-2308-06005,
title = {How Early Participation Determines Long-Term Sustained Activity in GitHub Projects?},
author = {Wenxin Xiao and Hao He and Weiwei Xu and Yuxia Zhang and Minghui Zhou},
booktitle = {FSE},
year = {2023},
doi = {10.1145/3611643.3616349}
}