一句话：用 Kaplan-Meier 生存函数与多项式回归评估开源项目存活率，发现贡献者数量与项目热度是关键因素。
该研究关注开源软件（OSS）项目的可存活性评估问题，旨在识别影响项目能否持续存活的关键因素。作者采用 Kaplan-Meier 生存函数刻画项目存活概率随时间的变化，并利用多项式回归模型分析贡献者数量、项目热度、项目年龄等指标与存活性的关系。结果表明，贡献者数量和项目受欢迎程度对 OSS 可存活性有显著影响；传统上常用的项目年龄并不直接与存活率相关。相反，社区参与度和项目认可度才是更重要的因素。研究据此为管理和选择可存活的开源项目提供了指导。
This study evaluates OSS project survivability using the Kaplan-Meier Survival Function and polynomial regression models. The key factors identified include the number of contributors and project popularity, which significantly influence survivability. Traditional indicators like project age do not directly correlate with OSS survivability. Instead, community engagement and recognition are crucial, offering valuable guidelines for managing and selecting Survivable OSS projects.
@inproceedings{paperbot8349,
title = {Assessing Open Source Software Survivability using Kaplan-Meier Survival Function and Polynomial Regression},
author = {Sohee Park and Ryeonggu Kwon and Gihwon Kwon},
booktitle = {ASE},
year = {2024},
doi = {10.1145/3691620.3695333}
}